Epistemological and Methodological Study of Probability in the Islamic Economics Based on Sadra’s Philosophy

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate professor, Faculty of Economics, Qum University, Iran

2 PhD student at Qom Seminary, Iran

Abstract

Probability calculus is one of the issues that have a major role in economics. Contemporary economics has distinguished between objective and epistemological probability and frequently has used the objective one in economic theories. But now in the wake of the criticism of subjectivism on the objective probability, the orientation of the economics is towards Bayesian probability and epistemological probability. By studying the position of the probability calculus in different fields of economics, it is suggested to explain the principles of Islamic economics on the basis of theories of Islamic philosophers. The Transcendental Wisdom sees the objective possibility as some sort of psychological probability and only regards the logical certainty as valid. With the theory of e’tebarat, Allameh Tabataba’i has continued this way. Accordingly, the probability is a subjective expectation that no matter how much conformity it has to law, it does not exit the psychological probability. With its different levels, psychological probability is subject to the provisions of practical reason, and in some cases it can be followed in the absence of logical certainty. The application of this view benefits the Islamic economics in epistemological and methodological area. The Islamic methodology in economics uses probability calculus as a way of verifying economic theories in the absence of certainty.  Also where the action is based on probabilities, we could use the calculus. Probabilistic prediction is also another way of using this calculus in Islamic economics when we have no certainty. The interpretation of Shahid Sadr for probability based on elm-e ejmali lacks discovery, because it doesn't reach the logical certainty. However, Shahid Sadr’s theory can be deemed valid under the provisions of practical reason by doing some modifications.

Keywords

References

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Philosophy of Religion
Volume 14, Issue 3
October 2017
Pages 487-515

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