Explanation and Examination of Stephen Unwin's Probabilistic Argument to Prove the Existence of God

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Islamic Education, Faculty of Theology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

10.22059/jpht.2024.375523.1006043

Abstract

In his book, The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth, Stephen D'Unwin presents an argument for the existence of God based on Bayes' theorem and six areas of evidence, namely the perception of good and evil, the existence of moral and natural evil, the existence of natural miracles, paranormal phenomena, and religious experiences. D'Unwin concludes that the probability of God's existence is 67%. This article critically examines Unwin's argument, demonstrating that he may not have provided the most comprehensive evidence, and that his explanations for each piece of evidence contain several flaws, such as imprecise definitions, circular reasoning, personal bias, and internal contradictions. These issues undermine the validity of his argument. While this argument may not definitively prove the existence of God, it could still be useful for practical purposes, such as justifying religious beliefs or making personal choices. This article employs a descriptive and critical approach to analyze Unwin's argument.

Keywords

Main Subjects


ﺍﺑﻦ ﺳﻴﻨﺎ، ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﺑﻦ ﻋﺒﺪﺍﷲ.(۱۴۰۴)  ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎء: ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ، ﻗﻢ، ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻪ ﺁﻳﺖ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻋﺸﻲ.
ﺟﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺁﻣﻠﻲ، ﻋﺒﺪﺍﷲ، (1387) ﺑﺮﺍﻫﻦ ﺍﺛﺒﺎ ﺟﻮ ﺧﺪﺍ، ﻧﺸﺮ ﺍﺳﺮﺍء، ﻗﻢ.
ﺣﺮﺍﻧﻲ ﺍﺑﻦ ﺷﻌﺒﻪ، ﺣﺴﻦ ﺑﻦ ﻋﻠﻲ، (1363) ﺗﺤﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮ، ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻛﺒﺮ ﻏﻔﺎﺭﻱ، ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﻣﺪﺭﺳﻴﻦ، ﻗﻢ.
ﺧﻨﺪﺍﻥ، ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﺻغر، (1384) ﻣﻐﺎﻟﻄﺎ، ﻗﻢ، ﺑﻮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻛﺘﺎﺏ.
ﺭﺍﺯﻱ، ﻗﻄﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ، ،(۱۳۸۴) ﺗﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ، ﺑﻴﺪﺍﺭ، ﻗﻢ.
ﺳﻬﺮﻭﺭﺩﻱ، ﻳﺤﻲ ﺑﻦ ﺣﺒﺶ، (۱۳۷۵) ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻣﺼﻨﻔﺎﺦ ﺍﺷﺮﺍ، ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺎﻧﺮﻱ ﻛﺮﺑﻦ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺪ ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻧﺼﺮ ﻭ ﻧﺠﻔﻘﻠﻲ ﺣﺒﻴﺒﻲ، ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﻲ، ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ.
ﺻﺪﺭﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯﻱ (1362) ﺍﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻗﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘ، ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﺸﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﻲ، ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ: ﺁﮔﺎﻩ.
ﻃﻮﺳﻲ، ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺑﻦ ﻣﺤﻤ، (1367) اساس الاقتباس، ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﺤﻤﺪﺗﻘﻲ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ ﺭﺿﻮﻱ، ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ، ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ.
عبادی، احمد؛ امدادی ماسوله، محمد، (1402)، از قضیه بیز تا رد طبیعت‌گرایی خداناباورانه، اندیشه دینی، دانشگاه شیراز.
ﻓﺎﺭﺍﺑﻲ، ﺍﺑﻮﻧﺼﺮ، ( ۱۴۰۸ ) ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺍﺑﻲ، ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺗﻘﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺶﭘﮋﻭﻩ، ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻪ ﺁﻳﺖ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻋﺸﻲ، ﻗﻢ.
کتاب مقدس، (1920) ترجمه فارسی، انجمن کتاب مقدس، لندن.
ﻣﻮﺭ، ﺟﻮﺭﺝ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺭﺩ، ﺍﺳﺘﻮﻧﺴﻮﻥ، ﺍﺱ ﺍﻝ، ﻓﺮﺍﻧﻜﺎ، ﺩﺑﻠﻴﻮ ﻛﻲ، (1395) ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪﻫﺎ ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻪ ﺍﺧﻼ، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﺟﻲ، ﺭﻭﺯﺑﻪ، ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ.
ﻣﻮﻟﻲ ﻋﺒﺪﺍﷲ، ( ۱۴۱۲) ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺷﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻬﺬﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ، ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﻼﻣﻲ، ﻗﻢ.
ﻣﻴﺸﻞ، ﺗﻮﻣﺎﺱ، (1377) ﻛﻼ ﻣﺴﺤﻲ، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﺗﻮﻓﻴﻘﻲ، ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ، ﻗﻢ.
Ayatollahy, H.R. (2000). Seddiqin Argument for Proving the Existence of God in Islamic Philosophy, Conference: 29th Annual AMSS Conference, “Islam and Society in the 21st Century”. October 2000. At: Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA.
Bishop, J. & McKaughan, D. J. (2023). Faith. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Davis, Ph. J. (2004). A Brief Look at Mathematics and Theology. Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal, Iss. 27, Article 14.
Davis, S. T. (1997). God, Reason and Theistic Proofs. Edinburgh University Press.
Driscoll, J.T. (1911). Miracle. In The Catholic Encyclopedia. New York: Robert Appleton Company. Vol. 10.
Ebadi, A. & Emdadi Masuleh, M. (1981). From Bayes theorem to rejection of atheistic naturalism. Shiraz University: Religious thought. (in Persian)
Farabi, A. N. (1408). Al-Farabi’s Logic. Edited by Muhammad-Taqi Daneshpoh. Qom: Ayat Allah Marashi Library. (in Arabic)
Freud, S. (1990). Origins of Religion: Totem and Taboo and Moses and Monotheism.
Graves, D. (1996). Scientists of Faith: 48 Biographies of Historic Scientists and Their Christian Faith. Kregel Publications.
Guardian, (2004). Odds on that God exists, says scientist. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/mar/08/highereducation.uk1.
Hájek, A. (2022). "Pascal’s Wager", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.).
Harani Ibn Sha'ba, H. B. A. (1363). Gifts of wisdom. Edited by Ali-Akbar Ghaffari. Qom: Society of teachers. (in Arabic)
Holy Bible (1920). Persian translation. London: Holy Bible Society. (in Persian)
Ibn Sina, H. B. A. (1983). Healing, Logic. Qom: Ayatullah Al-Marashi Library. (in Arabic)
Javadi-Amli, A. (2008). Proofs of God's Existence. Qom: Isra Publishing. (in Persian)
Khandan, A.A. (2005). Fallacies. Qom: Bustan Ketab. (in Persian)
Long, J. & Perry, P. (2016). God and the Afterlife: The Groundbreaking New Evidence for God and Near-Death Experience. HarperOne.
Martin, M. (2007). Atheism. New York: cambridge university press.
Matheson, J. (2021). Common Consent Arguments for the Existence of God. In Paul Edwards (ed.). The Encyclopedia of Philosophy. New York: Macmillan Publishing. Vol. 2. 147-155.
Michel, T. (1998). Christian theology. Translated by Hossein Tofighi. Qom: Center for Studies and Research of Religions and Sects. (in Persian)
Moore, G. E., Stoneson, SL., & Franka, W.K. (2015). Theories of Moral Philosophy. Translated by Hossein Kaji. Tehran: Roozbeh. (in Persian)
Moula Abdallah (1991). Marginalia on the refinement of logic. Qom: Islamic Publishing Foundation. (in Arabic)
Oppy, G. (2023). "Ontological Arguments", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2023 Edition). Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.).
Peterson, M. ET. AL. (2013). Reason & Religious Belief An Introduction to the Philosophy of Religion. New York: Oxford University Press.
Peterson, M. (2017). An Introduction to Decision Theory. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
Peterson, M. et al. (2014). Philosophy of religion. New York: Oxford University Press.
Razi, Q. D. (2004). Editing the logical rules in explaining the Solar treatise. Qom: Bidar. (in Arabic)
Rizvi, S. (2021). "Mulla Sadra", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Spring 2021 Edition). Edward N. Zalta (ed.).
Sadr al-Din Shirazi (1983). Oriental Glimpses in the Logical Arts. Correction of religious problems. Tehran: Agah. (in Arabic)
Sohrevardi, Y. B. H. (1996). Collection of works of Sheikh Eshraq. Researched by Henry Karbon & Seyed Hossein Nasr & Najafagli Habibi. Tehran: Institute of Cultural Studies and Research.
Stigler, S. M. (2018). Richard Price, the First Bayesian. Statist, Sci. 33(1), 117-125.
Swinburne, R. (2010). Is There a GOD?. New York: Oxford University Press Inc.
Tooley, M. (2021). "The Problem of Evil", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Edward N. Zalta (ed.).
Tousi, M. B. M. (1988). Fandation of Quote. Edited by Mohammad Razavi Madrasah. Tehran: Tehran University. (in Arabic)
Tryon, E. P. (1973). Is the Universe a Vacuum Fluctuation?. Nature, 246, 396-397.
Unwin, S. D. (2003). The probability of God: a simple calculation that proves the ultimate truth. New York: Three Rivers Press.